There were many moments last season that could be said to have underlined Newcastle United’s arrival — or overdue re-emergence — as a serious force in the Premier League.
Some landmark performances and results, certainly, on their way to a top-four finish and Champions League qualification. Some catty comments from rival managers including Jurgen Klopp and Erik ten Hag. Some serious resistance in the transfer market, according to their head coach Eddie Howe, from clubs who “didn’t want to be seen to be helping us”. And some concerns raised by clubs demanding further scrutiny of Newcastle’s ownership structure and their new-found commercial prowess.
There was another incident that didn’t come to light at the time.
It came on a matchday when, walking into the directors’ lounge at a rival club, the Newcastle delegation encountered their frostiest reception yet. Hands were outstretched by the visitors from Tyneside, there to be shaken, but were conspicuously ignored by one opposition director, seemingly eager to make his hostility clear.
The episode was so awkward that the Newcastle executive on the receiving end relayed it on the insistence that identities were withheld. But it will not be forgotten in a hurry.
As much as it felt like a hostile act, it also felt, in a funny sort of way, like acceptance — acceptance, that is, that English football’s latest established order is under threat.
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For well over a decade, since Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur forced their way into what had previously been a seemingly impenetrable gang of four dominant clubs, we have spoken of a ‘Big Six’ in the Premier League.
Some have bristled at the term, imagining it to be a media fabrication based on a collective sense of reverence for those biggest clubs. But it was never that. It was a reflection of a 21st century reality.
Since the start of the 2005-06 season, those six — Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, City, Manchester United and Spurs — account for 70 of the 72 top-four finishes. Since the start of the 2009-10 season, they account for 70 out of 78 top-six finishes. They have also dominated the domestic cup competitions for the past two decades. Never before has English football’s hierarchy seemed so deeply entrenched.
If anyone still doubted the notion of a ‘Big Six’, a stark illustration of those clubs’ expansionist, elitist ambitions came in April 2021 when their owners signed up for the ill-fated launch of a breakaway “European Super League” project that had threatened to kill even the pretence of open competition. There are serious tensions at ownership and executive levels between some of these six clubs — mostly based on personality or recent issues rather than along historical tribal divisions — but on certain issues, when it comes to the redistribution of the game’s wealth, they are almost invariably on the same page.
When the Saudi Arabia-led bid to take over Newcastle appeared dead in the water during the socially-distanced summer of 2020, Amanda Staveley, who had brokered an agreement to buy Mike Ashley’s stake, claimed it had collapsed because “the other clubs in the Premier League didn’t want it to happen”. It was a simplistic version of events, but Staveley was certainly correct to imply some of the six clubs were opposed to the deal, which finally went through in October 2021.
Some of those clubs had sincere objections to Saudi’s sovereign wealth fund buying a top-flight English club during an international dispute over piracy of Premier League broadcasts in the Middle East. No doubt some of the individuals, at some of the clubs, had legitimate concerns about a Premier League club becoming an instrument of a foreign state, particularly one whose human-rights record has attracted condemnation. But Staveley was not alone in suspecting many of the objections were more self-serving than that.
With the wealth of the Public Investment Fund (PIF) behind them, Newcastle threatened not to just turn the ‘Big Six’ into a ‘Big Seven’ — and by doing so, increase the unwanted jeopardy surrounding Champions League qualification — but become a truly dominant force the same way City have done under the ownership of Sheikh Mansour, who is vice-president and deputy prime minister of the United Arab Emirates.
But few imagined Newcastle would upset the established order so quickly once the takeover was approved, going from the relegation zone in early 2022 to Champions League qualification in their first full campaign under Saudi ownership.
Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea all competed in the Champions League last season. This time, they will all be on the outside looking in — with the two London clubs missing out on European football altogether — while Newcastle take their place among the continent’s elite.
This will be Newcastle’s first Champions League campaign since 2002-03. But remarkably, only one club from outside what is now the ‘Big Six’ have qualified for UEFA’s blue-riband club competition proper in all that time.
That club, of course, were Leicester City, who stunned the football world by winning the Premier League in 2016. They also finished fifth in 2020 and 2021, just short of Champions League qualification, and won the FA Cup in the latter year. It was an outstanding period of success for a club of their size, but even then — before the sharp decline and fall that brought relegation in May — it is doubtful whether the elite truly felt threatened in a broader sense, to where six might become seven.
Newcastle are a very different proposition — albeit one operating under tighter constraints than previous disruptors.
Upon completion of the Newcastle takeover in late 2021, after such a protracted saga, Staveley declared the takeover would be “hugely transformative” and that “we have the same ambitions as Manchester City and PSG (Qatari-owned serial French champions Paris Saint-Germain) in terms of trophies” — though that, she said, “will take time”.
If anything, it is surprising how little time and, relatively speaking, how little investment it has taken for Newcastle to make the huge jump from the bottom three, at grave risk of dropping back down to the Championship, to the top four and Champions League qualification. In an era when the financial and competitive divide is greater than ever and when there are rules in place to regulate and control spending, Newcastle’s early progress under the PIF’s ownership — and under Howe’s management — has been spectacular.
For their rivals, the inconvenient truth is that Newcastle’s progress on the pitch has outstripped the club’s spending.
It has been nothing like as wild or aggressive as Chelsea’s in their first years under the ownership of Roman Abramovich two decades ago, or Manchester City’s in the early stages of Sheikh Mansour’s tenure from the summer of 2008. The robustness of the Premier League’s financial processes is still to be determined, to the intense frustration of many, but it simply isn’t possible for Newcastle to spend in the way those clubs did after being taken over.
Chelsea made the four biggest signings in the Premier League in 2003-04, three of the top four in 2004-05 and three of the top five in 2005-06; Manchester City made two of the top four signings in 2008-09, all of the top four in 2009-10 and four of the biggest six in 2010-11.
By contrast, Newcastle made the Premier League’s sixth and 16th biggest signings of 2021-22 (Bruno Guimaraes and Chris Wood), the sixth, 16th and 20th biggest of 2022-23 (Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon and Sven Botman) and have so far made the seventh, 14th and 19th biggest of this summer (Sandro Tonali, Harvey Barnes and Tino Livramento) — and this having inherited a squad which had seemed in need of a total overhaul after years of stagnation and limited investment under Ashley’s ownership.
Who, in October 2021, would have imagined them finishing fourth at the end of the following season having spent so little, relatively speaking, and while drawing so heavily on Fabian Schar, Sean Longstaff, Jacob Murphy and the once-maligned Joelinton?
As such, it isn’t easy to imagine Newcastle making the next step, progressing quite as inexorably as Manchester City did. A lot of those players seemed to be performing at the peak of their abilities last season and, as Howe has noted, it will be hard to hit those levels every week when there are also the demands of Champions League football to contend with.
Tonali joined Newcastle this summer but the club have not spent as lavishly as early post-takeover Chelsea and City (Getty Images)
City’s next target, after finishing fourth and winning the FA Cup in 2011, was to win the Premier League, which they duly did a year later after adding Sergio Aguero and Samir Nasri to a squad that already included Yaya Toure, David Silva and many other proven top-level performers.
Newcastle are not in that position — and, candidly, the competition looks far stronger today than it did in the early 2010s, when Manchester United were about to enter decline, Arsenal were drifting, Chelsea (despite certain trophy successes) were unstable and Liverpool, after chaos at ownership level, were nowhere. The level at the top of the Premier League seems much stronger now. Pep Guardiola and City have seen to that.
If you offered Howe, and even most of Newcastle’s directors, another top-four finish next May, they would probably take it.
The concern among “the six” is less about what Newcastle have become in a short space of time than about what they could become in the future.
In terms of potential growth, Newcastle have a high ceiling even if two decades of stagnation have left much work to do. In terms of ownership, nobody imagines the PIF got involved in the Premier League to make up the numbers and enjoy a return on its investment, happy to exist in the shadow of a club owned by Gulf region neighbour Abu Dhabi. In terms of staff, the early work done by Howe, sporting director Dan Ashworth, chief executive Darren Eales and others demonstrates a seriousness and clarity that is rare among ambitious new regimes.
Other clubs outside the ‘Big Six’ look serious too — notably Brighton & Hove Albion and, increasingly, Aston Villa. West Ham United have their moments.
Seriousness has been a problem for Everton under Farhad Moshiri’s ownership, but, with a new stadium on the horizon, they could theoretically re-emerge if they can avoid financial meltdown — and their first relegation since the 1950s — in the meantime. Other clubs might feel they can, at the very least, force their way into the top six or seven, as Brighton and Villa did last season.
But in terms of challenging, and potentially upsetting, the established order on a consistent basis and shattering the very notion of a ‘Big Six’, Newcastle look uniquely equipped.
That doesn’t just mean securing a handful of top-six finishes or even the odd, long-elusive trophy.
Why are Tottenham (15 years since their last piece of silverware: the League Cup) considered ‘Big Six’ but Leicester (Premier League champions in 2016 and FA Cup winners in 2021) not? Because Spurs have developed a consistency on the pitch and infrastructure and influence off the pitch that means they become a largely immovable force.
Seriously, they have. Stop laughing.
Tottenham Hotspur are a rich, powerful club who finished in the top six for 10 consecutive seasons, reaching a Champions League final along the way, established themselves among Europe’s 10 richest clubs and leapt at the invitation to join the Super League rebels in 2021. Unlike in the 2000s, a really bad season for them now is finishing eighth. As they did in 2022-23. A really bad season for Leicester in the same campaign ended in relegation.
In terms of resources and potential, power and influence, there is no comparison.
The ‘Big Five’ of the 1980s (Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham) was more about power and financial motivation than on-pitch performance. Challengers came and went during the 1990s, not least Newcastle under Kevin Keegan. Blackburn Rovers won the Premier League in 1995, but were relegated four years later. Leicester’s going down last season, seven years after being crowned champions, seems episodic by comparison.
It is only since the start of the 21st century, as the game’s financial model has served to widen the divide between the elite and the rest, that things have really become stratified.
A serious and seemingly unassailable ‘Big Four’ emerged when Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United claimed the top four positions in five seasons out of six in the mid/late 2000s before Tottenham got their foot in the door and then City kicked it down before picking it up, closing it tightly behind them and establishing themselves as the top dogs with little regard for reputations (or, it is alleged and categorically denied, the rulebook).
Four became six. And those six became so entrenched, so seemingly unassailable, that it became impossible to imagine a consistent seventh contender emerging organically.
Newcastle’s threat hasn’t emerged organically. It was never going to. A club that vegetated under Ashley’s ownership has been energised by the wealth and ambition of a regime which, like that at Manchester City, has far more than sporting success at its core but which, as a result, craves glory, power and influence in a way your common-or-garden Premier League owner does not.
It is a bleak reflection on the game that success has drifted so far out of reach for so many clubs in so many leagues, where the same clubs achieve European qualification year after year — and with it more access to broadcast revenue, prize money, gate receipts and commercial income — and become more and more dominant. It is even bleaker still if the only way to challenge the established order is to be bought by a regime accused by Amnesty International of “sportswashing their appalling human rights record with the glamour of top-flight football”.
That brings a different level of scrutiny and suspicion. It means the entirely justified praise for Ashworth, Howe and the players is accompanied by entirely justified questions about the purpose of this project. It means that when Newcastle announce a huge shirt sponsorship deal with Saudi events company Sela and sell French winger Alain Saint-Maximin to Al Ahli, one of four Saudi Pro League clubs recently transferred to the ownership of the PIF, there are understandable questions from their competitors, urging the Premier League to investigate whether all of this is above board.
The Premier League was duty-bound to scrutinise those deals anyway. The ink was barely dry on the Newcastle takeover documents when a majority of Premier League clubs rushed to an agreement over new rules over “related party transactions”, determined to ensure that all future transactions reflected “fair value”.
At a reported £25million a year, the Sela arrangement is around four times bigger than the club’s previous deal with a Chinese gambling firm, and significantly more than West Ham, Villa or Everton attract for shirt sponsorship — but still well below, for example, Tottenham’s contract with insurance firm AIA, worth up to £40million a year, let alone those enjoyed by the rest of the elite. It is not comparable to the huge hike City enjoyed when Etihad signed the biggest sponsorship deal in English football (for stadium naming rights as well as shirt sponsorship) in 2011.
Realistically, that is the space Newcastle occupy for now. Commercially and financially, they have left the other 13 behind but are not yet at the level of the ‘Big Six’.
The unnerving thought for those six clubs is that Newcastle finished above three of them (Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea) on the pitch last season. Even if there were to be a slight regression in the campaign that kicks off tomorrow (Friday), this is a club who have set their sights on top six, on top four, on challenging for trophies and ultimately doing what Manchester City have been done over the past decade.
That last bit is far easier said than done. It is nothing like as simple as City, even with all of those question marks hanging over them, have made it look. Newcastle started from further back at a time when the gap between the top and bottom of the Premier League table is, by any measure, far greater. They have had to contend with financial restrictions from the start.
Newcastle’s last recorded revenue, for 2021-22, was £180million, 20th highest in European football but less than the same at West Ham, Leicester, Leeds and Everton. Their 2022-23 figure will see a huge jump, reflecting bigger attendances, greater commercial deals, more prize money.
The campaign which begins at home to Villa on Saturday will bring more revenue still — more matchday revenue, Champions League prize money, that deal with Sela — but they are still likely to be well short of Spurs, never mind the rest of the ‘Big Six’. Challenging for the biggest prizes on a consistent basis might be more difficult than is commonly imagined.
There is also the previously unforeseen question of whether the PIF’s focus on the Saudi Pro League (SPL) might impact on Newcastle.
So far, they have been operating in different markets — Ashworth and Howe targeting younger players while the Saudi clubs go for big-name “statement” signings much later in their careers — but that could change as both parties’ strategies evolve.
If, next summer, Yasir Al-Rumayyan, chairman of Newcastle and governor of the PIF, finds himself across the negotiating table from the agent of a star player who is wanted by the Premier League and, say, Al Ittihad, what is his priority? Which project is more important to the PIF’s (ie, Saudi Arabia’s) interests — Newcastle, or the SPL?
Staveley with her Chelsea counterpart Behdad Eghbali – the two clubs enjoy good relations at executive level (Photo: Marc Atkins/Getty Images)
There are so many complications, potential or real, that City and particularly Chelsea did not have to contend with.
There is regulation now — inadequate, many would argue, but regulation nonetheless. And six of the clubs standing in Newcastle’s way happen to be six of the 10 richest in Europe, as evidenced in the Deloitte Money League table, in which they were a very distant 20th at the last count but are likely to creep up over the next few seasons.
It does feel like six is becoming seven in the Premier League, though.
And speaking to officials at some of those six clubs, you can sense the apprehension in their voices even before they articulate it. The possibility of a fifth Champions League place for English clubs from 2024-25 — depending on their performance in European competition this season — offers some comfort, but not enough for some of those owners who would much prefer to be part of a closed shop.
In the Ashley years, Newcastle barely merited a backward glance among the leading Premier League managers. Under this regime, ambitious off the pitch and unapologetically results-driven on it, that is already looking different.
Tensions and rivalries are taking shape; in press conferences and on the touchline, Howe has traded barbs with opposition managers including Ten Hag (who accused Newcastle of timewasting) and Klopp (who aired the same grievance while also saying they were operating without restrictions in the transfer market — a complaint that did not quite ring true).
As the trailer for the upcoming Amazon Prime documentary about them demonstrates, Howe is a feistier character than his previous public persona suggested.
Off the pitch? Beyond those letters to the Premier League and that frosty matchday scene in one top-flight boardroom, there has been just the odd hint of acceptance lately: a place on a working group for Staveley here, a pleasantry there. The new leadership team at Chelsea are positively warm towards their Newcastle counterparts — two regimes feeling their way in choppy Premier League waters, finding common interests and outlooks, encountering some of the same hostilities — even if this spirit of understanding did not extend to a willingness to discuss a deal for the Londoners’ England midfielder Conor Gallagher in this year’s January transfer window.
A time will come when the coldness elsewhere gives way to some degree of cordiality, however superficial.
It happened with the Abramovich regime at Chelsea and the Abu Dhabi regime at City. Even over the past few years, since German newspaper Der Spiegel’s allegations about City unleashed wave after wave of indignation from their rivals behind closed doors, executives of the ‘Big Six’ have continued to cooperate on issues of shared interest.
On that score, the thought of six becoming seven will deeply concern some of the other 13.
Quite apart from how that might impact on the voting over future issues, there was always the feeling among some clubs that, at the start of every season, there were six sides who would be competing for the top four and 14 whose immediate priority would be to avoid finishing in the bottom three.
Those dynamics have shifted.
A big seven? Looking ahead — not just to this season, but beyond — it feels like it is heading that way.
(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)
