The Premier League returns tomorrow.
The 2023-24 season kicks off at Turf Moor on Friday night as Vincent Kompany’s new-look, new-vibes Burnley take on treble winners Manchester City. Not only did Pep Guardiola’s team win the FA Cup and the Champions League in 2022-23, they also won the Premier League for the third season in a row.
No team in English top-flight history (since 1888-89) has ever been crowned champions for four successive years. Not yet, anyway.
Can City further their dominance to unprecedented levels? Or will Arsenal go one better than last year and win their first league title for 20 years? Who’s going to struggle? And what revolutionary new tactic will we all be enjoying come May 2024?
We asked seven of our writers to answer those questions and more ahead of the 32nd Premier League campaign.
- Tottenham accept Bayern transfer offer for Harry Kane
Will Manchester City become the first team to win the league for four consecutive seasons? If not, why not? And who will?
Joey D’Urso : Arsenal were brilliant for most of last season and their late wilting seemed to be more about experience and mentality than anything else. They have battle scars now as well as three great new signings in Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber. It’s on…
Carl Anka : It pains me to write this, but Manchester City are favourites for the title until proven otherwise. They’ve got the best manager in the league (if not the world) who seems quicker and more inventive at finding solutions than anyone else. Their defensive scheme is remarkable. The structure and aggression of their front press can make games claustrophobic and they have a genuine game-breaking striker in Erling Haaland. To dethrone City, you will need to be near perfect and they will have to have endured a down spell. Good luck to any potential usurpers!
Ahmed Walid : For City to win it, they probably need to put in their best shift once again. It’s likely they will because Pep Guardiola is Pep Guardiola and the quality of their players is non-negotiable, but it won’t be completely surprising if one of Arsenal, Manchester United or Liverpool beat them to it.
Nick Miller : Every year I tell myself I’m not going to be sucked in by an indifferent spell of form from Manchester City. Every year I tell myself that at some point they will peel off a 10-game winning run and leave everyone else in the dust. Every year I tell myself they’re too strong and don’t hope for anyone else to produce a bit of variety. But every year I forget and I’m sucked in by the hope. I should know better. I should know they’re going to be too strong again. I should know not to hope too much for a proper title race. But I don’t know better, so I’m going to say: Arsenal for the title.
Sarah Shephard : My heart says no but my head says yeah, they will. Arsenal will be stronger both in terms of squad depth and experience, but I still can’t see it being quite enough to close the gap on Guardiola’s treble-winners. I can see Manchester United also pushing them hard this season, but again, it’s a struggle to see them surpassing City. The only slight question mark could be if there is any sort of complacency or competition fatigue (if there is such a thing) from City having so much success and fighting on so many fronts for so long last season. But I’m not holding my breath.
GO DEEPER
How Pep Guardiola will fight ‘Dwight Yorke Effect’ at Manchester City
Adam Hurrey : Yes, because they’ve engineered themselves into a state that every elite club craves: relative stability. Tales of Pep Guardiola’s relentless demands are legion, but through a combination of pathologically obsessive carrot and cold-blooded stick, he has managed to keep his City squad hungry and willing to compete for places. The only candidate from the so-called Big Six who can offer anything like that is Arsenal, but Mikel Arteta’s ship hasn’t been fully sea-trialled across a 60-game season yet. The others still have too far to bounce back in 2023-24.
Jack Lang : Yes, just about. Arsenal were brilliant for long chunks of the 2022-23 season and have added both depth and quality this summer. They should be better equipped to sustain a title challenge and I can see them going closer. Manchester United, too, should put up a decent fight, but City have the best striker in the world and the best manager in the world and remain the team to beat.
In order, who will finish in the top… five* and qualify for the Champions League?
D’Urso : Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool
Anka : Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal (the smallest of margins between two and three), Manchester United, Chelsea
Walid : Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Newcastle United
Miller : Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool
Hurrey : Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool
Shephard : Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, Newcastle
Lang : Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool
*based on UEFA coefficents, the Premier League should have five spots in the new-look 2024-25 Champions League
Can Arsenal dethrone Manchester City? (James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images)
Is the Big Six over? Is it a Big Seven? Eight? Twenty?
D’Urso : No. The Big Six descriptor was always about money, not the league table. Although Tottenham finished below Villa, Newcastle and Brighton last season, their revenue is roughly double each of those clubs’, giving them a huge advantage for the longer term, especially as financial fair play restrictions become increasingly important. The same goes for Chelsea. It would take several bad seasons (and good ones for someone else) for anyone to truly break up the Big Six.
Anka : We’ve been asking this question ever since Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester looked like they would gatecrash the party. Their relegation serves to show how the Big Six is a big club and breaking into it is harder than anticipated. I thoroughly expect Newcastle to have a good 2023-24, leading us to have a conversation with the sub-editors desk as to whether we should use “The Rich Seven” or “The Magnificent Seven” as shorthand, but for now, my answer is the same as last season. The Big Six descriptor has less to do with league position and more to do with money and the cultural history of the clubs included in it. So long as teams change their tactical approach when they play you and it’s treated as a big deal when you lose, then the Big Six remain.
Walid : From a football perspective, it is. The quality of Newcastle United, Brighton, Aston Villa, Brentford and even Fulham makes them a thorn in the side of the Big Six. Any of those teams could beat Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham, Liverpool or Chelsea on any given day.
Miller : Sort of. The nice thing about the group of financially dominant clubs expanding is that there is an increased chance of a really rich team doing something stupid or having an awful season, which is a) funny and b) good for some semblance of competitive variety. So the top seven probably won’t be the big seven, but they will still buy everyone else’s players.
Hurrey : As unromantic as this will sound, the Big Six was always about more than perennial league position: it’s been about influence, commercial revenue, Champions League knockout experience, stealing players from shrewder, smaller clubs, that sort of thing. Given their apparent legal untouchability and latent sleeping-giantness, I will allow Newcastle into a provisional Big Seven.
Shephard : Not yet. I’m afraid it will take more than one season for a club to be allowed entry. Newcastle seem the most likely to force an expansion but only if they can repeat last season’s form.
Lang : I agree wholeheartedly with Joey.
Newcastle and Chelsea of the… Big Seven? (Jason Allen/ISI Photos/Getty Images)
Which clubs will struggle this season?
D’Urso : The obvious answers are Luton Town and Sheffield United, who aren’t spending much. This tells us something interesting about modern football — it might make more sense in the long run for both to just bank a year of TV money and subsequent parachute payments and hopefully get back to the Premier League again with a firmer financial base. It’s a less risky strategy than betting the house on staying up, which worked for Nottingham Forest last season, but things would be very ugly at the City Ground now if it hadn’t.
Anka : Something feels off at Fulham. They were impressive last season in how they maximised set pieces and Aleksandar Mitrovic’s bully-ball stylings, but their summer activity hasn’t moved the needle too much. There’s a good core group there but several players are over the age of 30 and Mitrovic looks to have had his head turned by an offer from the Saudi Pro League, even if he ends up elsewhere. I don’t think they’ll be relegated, but I can see them getting dragged into the mire.
Walid : With a few of the teams getting closer to the Big Six, there was a clear gap in quality between the top half of the table and the bottom half last season. Unless any of the bottom-half teams, in addition to the promoted ones, overachieve, then the struggling clubs could be all of the bottom half once again.
Miller : Depends on your definition of ‘struggle’, but I can see Spurs finishing mid-table, although nobody will mind too much because they’ve got a manager who doesn’t feel like he’s doing them a massive favour by being there. I wonder whether Crystal Palace will regret sticking with Roy Hodgson. Luton and Sheffield United seem to be in ‘take the money and stabilise’ mode. Nottingham Forest could go either way. Everton have been chancing it for a few seasons. So it could well be a big ol’ bunfight at the bottom.
Hurrey : If you can even call it struggling, in relative terms, I officially ‘fear for’ Luton and Sheffield United. I have also decided that Brentford will plateau, Everton and Wolves will get booed by their fans a lot and that Forest — who will part ways, really messily, with Steve Cooper before Christmas — are basically the new Watford.
Shephard : I have concerns for Wolves after last season’s struggles and the losses of Raul Jimenez, Joao Moutinho and Ruben Neves this summer (and clearly former manager Julen Lopetegui did, too). Luton and Sheffield United will also be up against it, but I have a feeling that at least one of them will survive — likely the latter.
Lang : I think it will be quite a tricky few months for Brentford. Ivan Toney is a gigantic loss and although they coped well without him in the final few games of last season, there will surely be a drop-off over the longer term. Thomas Frank is obviously brilliant but I would be hugely impressed if he and his players manage to match last season’s ninth-placed finish.
__ is the player who will outscore Erling Haaland in 2023-24…
D’Urso : Did you see the former intelligence officer who told Congress the other day that the USA has proof that aliens exist? There’s a greater chance of him being right, and Elvis and Tupac being found alive for good measure, than anyone outscoring Erling Haaland this season (barring injury, obvs).
Anka : Lol. Lmao. Julian Alvarez if you want to be goofy. Next question.
Walid : If Harry Kane stays at Tottenham, he is the most logical answer to this question. The England striker’s 30 goals last season have been forgotten among the 300 million mentions of Erling Haaland, but unlike the Norwegian, Kane scored them in a turbulent Spurs side that surely would have finished lower than eighth if not for him. Otherwise, yes, it’s Haaland again.
Miller : Barring a startling revelation that Dixie Dean or Jimmy Greaves were actually cryogenically frozen in their prime and will be thawed out this season, it’s going to be Haaland. But I will play your little game and say… Mo Sal… Harry Ka… Marcus Ra… nope, sorry, can’t do it. Haaland.
Hurrey : Nope.
Shephard : Ugh. On the understanding that his level would have to drop massively for anyone to outscore him, I’ll shoot for… Marcus Rashford.
Lang : Realistically, it’s going to take a full-on Tonya Harding/Nancy Kerrigan situation to stop him. The pertinent question, therefore, is this: which Premier League striker seems like they would have the most violent, most unhinged entourage? The answer is obviously ( heavily redacted on advice of crack legal team).
Haaland celebrating goal number one of 36 in the Premier League last season (Julian Finney/Getty Images)
2023-24 will be a season too far for __
D’Urso : Fulham. They outran expected goals last season and gravity could catch up with them this time, especially if they lose any one of Aleksandr Mitrovic, Joao Palinha or manager Marco Silva.
Anka : I’m not ready to watch a Premier League without James Milner in it, but I’ll be surprised if he makes more than 10 starts for Brighton this season. He’s probably still amazing at the bleep test, but at 37 years of age and many miles on the clock, let’s not ask too much from him.
Walid : Nottingham Forest. No specific reason, just a hunch.
Miller : Fulham won’t be as good as last season, particularly if their sole plan for replacing Mitrovic is Raul Jimenez. But Wolves appear to be selling everyone and have lost a manager who kept them up but who didn’t want to be there. They could go down.
Hurrey : The Thomas Frank hype machine, Roy Hodgson’s been-there-done-it outlook, David Moyes wearing a slim-fit tracksuit, the chances of Frank Lampard ever again managing a serious top-flight club.
Shephard : Steve Cooper. He’ll have been Nottingham Forest manager for two years in September, which in Forest years is about 35, so I can’t help but feel the end is in sight. Sorry, Steve.
Lang : Possibly Bournemouth. Andoni Iraola is a brave, exciting appointment and I’m rooting for them to thrive, but… well, the squad is a bit of a jumble and a bad start could easily lead to the kind of existential crisis that usually ends with Sam Allardyce taking over in February.
Which player or team are you most looking forward to watching?
D’Urso : Moussa Diaby at Aston Villa. Chalk-on-the-boots wingers who run at people really fast are a dying breed in modern football. Diaby seems a livewire.
Anka : I’m very intrigued to see this new iteration of Manchester United with Andre Onana pinging balls out from the back and Rasmus Hojlund looking like a baby Cavani. I’m curious to see Big Ange’s revolution of Spurs and I predict, big, BIG things for Chelsea right-back Malo Gusto. I was genuinely punching the air when he got picked up last January.
Walid : Dominik Szoboszlai. I am a sucker for brilliant shooters and the Hungarian’s profile makes sense at Liverpool, especially after their shift towards a 3-2-4-1 shape on the ball.
Miller : Whichever player Brighton have found from somewhere that we haven’t really heard of yet who will turn out to be brilliant and worth £50million by next summer.
Hurrey : A fully pre-seasoned Mykhailo Mudryk.
Shephard : I’m intrigued to see how Liverpool shape up with their new-look midfield, but also what Mauricio Pochettino manages to eke out of a Chelsea side that looked so bereft of ideas and oomph last season.
Lang : To me, there is no sight more thrilling than that of a defender dribbling out from the back, accepting the inherent risk because it shrinks in comparison with the possible payoff. What I have seen of Jurrien Timber, therefore, has made me quite excited.
A pre-seasoned Mykhailo Mudryk (Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images)
The player clubs should try to buy back from the Saudi Pro League in Jan is __
D’Urso : Newcastle have just sold Allan Saint-Maximin to Saudi club Al Ahli for around $30million despite both clubs being owned by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. If the player was loaned back to Newcastle, they could keep the talented Frenchman while adding a load of cash to Newcastle’s balance sheet that would help them get around financial fair play restrictions and not cost the Public Investment Fund a penny. (This is tongue-in-cheek of course, but there doesn’t seem to be any rules to stop this happening, which is a bit concerning.)
Anka : It’d be dead funny if Sergej Milinkovic-Savic finally made it to the Premier League this Jan after years of being linked with a move to Manchester United. I’m surprised a European club didn’t try to get Marcelo Brozovic on a short-term deal. He remains an exceptional midfielder who could have done a job for many clubs in the top six.
Walid : Surely it’s Ruben Neves?
Miller : The Ruben Neves loan to Newcastle feels quite ‘on the nose’, but if it’s anyone it will be him. Unless Jordan Henderson discovers that floating in pools of money doesn’t quite make up for missing one of Jurgen Klopp’s big hugs.
Hurrey : Nobody in particular, although I can vividly picture Moussa Dembele “ending his Al Ettifaq nightmare” to score three goals in 14 games for Crystal Palace.
Shephard : Ruben Neves. He’s only 26 and he really, really wants to play Champions League football (so he said back in May). It’s only fair on the poor lad.
Lang : No one. Hey, remember all those players who went to China, earned enough money to keep their great grandkids’ great grandkids in Prada pyjamas, then returned to have really successful careers in top European leagues? No, me neither. The players who have made the choice to go to Saudi Arabia have told us something about their priorities and we should listen.
How many of the 20 teams will end the season with the manager they started with?
D’Urso : Less than half. It’s carnage out there. A big factor in this is that England is the place to be for any aspiring manager now, not to mention the most lucrative (Saudi aside). Owners will know they can easily poach top bosses from abroad in a way that wasn’t the case 10-15 years ago.
Anka : Nine bosses are not surviving the season. No club will have three managers across 2023-24. Sean Dyche will teeter, before pulling things back.
Walid : At least nine. The math behind this is that I can’t see any of Guardiola, Jurgen Klopp, Erik ten Hag, Mikel Arteta or Mauricio Pochettino getting the sack. Thomas Frank, Eddie Howe and Roberto De Zerbi’s credit in the bank will surely keep them safe, plus all three are a big reason why their teams are in those positions in the first place. Finally, Unai Emery’s power at Aston Villa and the success of last season means it would take a crazy campaign to see him get the chop.
Miller : Eight. I’ve got a hunch that a big dog could go mid-season, although I can’t quite tell you which one yet.
Hurrey : A startlingly stable and rational 14-15 teams.
Shephard : At least 11, I think. But there’s no accounting for owners with itchy fingers and panic buttons – one of those gets pressed and the whole Jenga tower begins to crumble.
Lang : Eleven, although just typing that has made me feel like a gullible rube with way too much faith in humanity.
Sam Allardyce at Leeds in 2022-23. Will he take part in 2023-24? (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
What new tactical trend will emerge?
D’Urso : Brentford’s long throw-ins are fun and seem to lead to goals. It’s surprising this hasn’t been copied more widely.
Anka : This summer I have seen many an imagined XI put in a 3-2-4-1 formation with a box midfield. The value of inverted full-backs and the power that box midfields have against counter-attacks is still not properly understood, but I reckon we’ll see multiple teams attempt it and try to figure things out.
Walid : More innovation at set pieces, especially corners. Last season’s 3.9 goals per 100 corners was the highest number of any season since 2007-08, and with more set-piece specialists coaching at Premier League clubs, that number could increase.
Miller : Not so much a new trend but a doubling down on the full-backs in midfield thing: rather than just one moving inside, some madman will do it with both. Probably Arsenal, with Oleksandr Zinchenko on one side and Jurrien Timber on the other.
Hurrey : A step up in the move away from using traditional names for formations. Feels like “4-3-3” and variants don’t quite do justice to how some managers are trying to set their teams up. Also, I have no idea.
Shephard : With the new rules surrounding time-wasting coming into play, might we see a player from each team who has the specific task of reminding everyone to get a move on during goal celebrations/set pieces etc? Probably not the most popular person in the squad… maybe the same one responsible for collecting player fines in the dressing room?
My biggest hope for the new season is __
D’Urso : Fewer handball penalties. They should be reserved for Luis Suarez vs Ghana-style abominations. No more close games decided by a ball-to-shoulder penalty calls in unthreatening positions. They’re rubbish.
Anka : (Outside my usual hopes for a decrease in racist abuse in the game and less rampant hyper-capitalism squeezing the joy from things) I was hoping that Chelsea wouldn’t get a sponsor for the front of their shirts. It was quite nice the way it was but that dream looks to be over before the season has even begun.
Walid : For it not to be over in March. A competitive Premier League where the title is decided in May, European places touch-and-go towards the end of the season and a relegation battle that makes your head go crazy on the final day of the season is much better than a team just rampaging through the league and three doomed teams we knew were going down from February onwards.
Miller : It would be nice if Roberto De Zerbi lasted the whole season at Brighton. As it is, he’s probably one of the obvious choices if a big club panics, but they were so good at points last season it would be lovely if he could have until May.
Hurrey : Everyone gives the cups a right good go!
Shephard : In line with the above and in response to the criticism some teams received last season for “going OTT”, I hope we continue to see players release their full emotions when they feel it’s warranted (not when the pundits/commentators deem it “right” to do so).
Lang : …that the football community as a whole wises up to the fact that pretty much everyone is using the verb “to invert” incorrectly. To invert something is to turn it upside-down or arrange it in the opposite order. A winger can be inverted if he or she plays on the opposite side than may have been expected historically given his or her stronger foot. A full-back can also be inverted, but invert does not mean move into the centre. Denis Irwin was an inverted full-back because he was right-footed and played on the left; Oleksandr Zinchenko is doing something interesting when he drifts in off the flank, but he’s not inverting.
How we think the Premier League will finish in 2023-24
Some 42 of our writers and editors predicted the final order of the 2023-24 Premier League. This table is an average of those predictions:
Our 2023-24 predicted PL table
(Top photo: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)
