“I was always wary of buying players on the back of good tournament performances,” Sir Alex Ferguson said after retiring as Manchester United manager a decade ago.
He cites his deals to sign Jordi Cruyff and Karel Poborsky after their “excellent runs” for the Netherlands and Czech Republic at the 1996 European Championship. “But I didn’t receive the kind of value their countries did that summer.”
Cruyff and Poborsky, who spent four and two years respectively at Old Trafford, did not even reach 100 combined appearances.
Ferguson’s explanation for why is simple: “Sometimes, players get themselves motivated and prepared for World Cups and European Championships and, after that, there can be a levelling-off.”
United’s signing of Sofyan Amrabat, on paper, looks like the perfect example of falling into this trap.
The 27-year-old was one of Morocco’s standouts at the 2022 World Cup, a relentless ball-winning defensive midfielder in coach Walid Regragui’s 4-5-1 system. He played every minute of the tournament for his country and covered more distance than any other player (81.4km; 50.5 miles) as they became the first African country to reach a World Cup semi-final.
Among the Morocco squad, Amrabat had the third-most touches (382), second-most passes (he completed 269 of 322) and joint-most progressive passes (28). Right-back Achraf Hakimi (with 35) was the only team-mate to record more tackles plus interceptions than Amrabat’s 22. He and central midfield partner Azzedine Ounahi, who joined Marseille from fellow French side Angers after the tournament, were two of the darlings of the World Cup.
“My greatest satisfaction was to watch Amrabat doing those things in a position he thought he couldn’t,” said his Fiorentina head coach Vincenzo Italiano.
“He was reluctant to play there, but he can make a difference. He’s fantastic at winning the ball back but he also knows how to play with the ball, he can even improve as a playmaker. He has been working on these aspects and it’s paying off now.”
Morocco and Fiorentina both play a similar shape on paper (4-3-3) but with polarising tactics.
Morocco, admittedly with Regragui taking over the national team just three months before the World Cup started last November, were defensively excellent and devastated their opponents in transition. They averaged just 39 per cent possession during the finals, but their full-backs — Hakimi and Noussair Mazraoui — were their attacking super-strength.
Comparatively, Fiorentina attack fluidly and expansively in Italy’s Serie A under Italiano. Their threats are out wide, with dribbling wingers and creative full-backs, although right-back Dodo often plays inside.
Fiorentina averaged 60.6 per cent possession in the Europa Conference League last season, where they were losing finalists to West Ham, finishing the tournament as top scorers (36). In Serie A, they ranked seventh for goals (53) but second for possession (56.1 per cent).
Amrabat’s role with the Florence-based club was to orchestrate play from a deep position close to the centre-backs. This gave Fiorentina a numerical advantage to prevent opponents from pressing (or at least make it very unappealing a prospect), while it helped to facilitate rotations, particularly out wide and further upfield.
Amrabat is primarily a low-risk passer, preferring to play it short, but he is an excellent controller of tempo, is composed and sharp when receiving under pressure or with his back to goal, and picks his moments to break the lines.
In May’s Europa Conference League final, he had the most touches (92), passes (79, with 71 completed), progressive passes (nine) and the highest pass completion rate (89.9 per cent). He also led Fiorentina in those three passing metrics last season and, across Europe’s big five domestic leagues in the past year, he ranks inside the top 15 per cent among all central midfielders.
The best pass in Amrabat’s locker is the switch of play.
The 40 of these he hit last season for Fiorentina, in all competitions, were at a rate of 1.2 per game. They are not frequent — a result of team tactics — but they can be dangerous.
Their equaliser that night against West Ham came from one such switch.
Amrabat finds right-winger Nicolas Gonzalez, who beats left-back Emerson in the air before his knockdown is finished by Giacomo Bonaventura:
United’s threat from wide areas, particularly if Marcus Rashford is stationed on their left, could benefit from this type of supply.
Another example comes from a 3-0 Conference League group stage defeat away to Istanbul Basaksehir last September.
Amrabat receives from goalkeeper Pierluigi Gollini, drives to the edge of Fiorentina’s defensive third and hits a big switch to Riccardo Saponara. The midfielder is then able to cross, winning a corner:
Amrabat’s confidence when playing between the centre-backs could suit United manager Erik ten Hag’s desire for his central defenders to move further upfield. “I sometimes want my centre-halves playing in midfield positions so that we create dynamics,” Ten Hag said last season.
One of the biggest benefits of using Amrabat in this role is how advanced the other central midfielders can play.
Mason Mount and Bruno Fernandes should benefit from having fewer ball-progression responsibilities with him around, and he is better at this specific role than Casemiro is. Ten Hag spoke of building a “new midfield” during pre-season. “We can, we have to step up there, we have to improve,” he said.
Amrabat’s comfort and excellence in these situations allowed Fiorentina to push their full-backs and other midfielders on into positions behind their opponents’ midfield.
Amrabat is, after all, a footballer with a Dutch education.
He was born in Huizen, in the province of North Holland, and graduated from Utrecht’s academy. His route to Fiorentina came via Feyenoord in the Netherlands, Club Bruges (Belgium) and a loan spell at another Italian side Verona, where he won their player of the season award at age 22.
Now 27, he has frequently had injury niggles and needed injections at the World Cup to get him through games — “I played like crazy,” he said. That could potentially be a problem if he were to stay at United for a longer period.
Using smarterscout data to assess his style over the past four seasons in Italy, Amrabat’s in-possession tendencies have remained consistent. Above-average ratings for link-up passing and ball retention ability underline his safe, short passing. His low scores for contribution to ball progression (22 out of 99 for last season) show he works best when anchoring a midfield featuring more technical players. He can supply them, then it’s their job to supply the forwards.
Smarterscout gives players’ games a series of values from zero and 99, a bit like the player ratings in the FIFA video games but powered by real data and advanced analytics. These ratings relate to either how often a player performs a given stylistic action (for example, volume of shots per touch), or how effective they are at it (for example, how well they progress the ball upfield) compared with others at their position.
As Italiano referenced, the defensive side of Amrabat’s game (defending impact and tackles, fouls, clearances and blocks) has improved as he has matured:
If there is a significant flaw with him, it is defending transitions — something Casemiro has struggled with, too. The Brazil international and Amrabat can expect to partner each other for United in a midfield double pivot.
Last season, Casemiro collected 13 yellow cards and two reds across all competitions, the most of any United player in both metrics. Amrabat’s 87 fouls and 15 bookings were the most of any Fiorentina player in 2022-23, though it should be noted that he has not been sent off in any of the past three campaigns.
Here he is fouling Emerson near the touchline in that Conference League final. Amrabat is tenacious and energetic, more than capable physically of covering for overcommitted full-backs, but his tackles can be overzealous. As the number above suggests, he gets cautioned regularly.
An ability to consistently make fouls without being booked (or, even better, doing so without getting that second yellow in a game) is an underrated trait for a central midfielder. Fiorentina’s expansive style could leave him exposed at times and at attacking corners he was often tasked with staying back so he could burst forward to try to stop counter-attacks.
Here he is fouling Inter Milan’s Nicolo Barella on a transition from a Fiorentina corner in last season’s Italian Cup final. On this occasion, there was no caution. Job done.
The upshot of this deal is that United are getting themselves a vastly experienced midfielder. Amrabat has played in two World Cups and an Africa Cup of Nations, winning 49 senior caps. Twice a (losing) cup finalist with Fiorentina last season, too.
The downside is that he is incredibly specific as a midfielder. This is not a player who will thrive in a box-to-box role and in games against low-block opponents he is unlikely to be able to contribute incisively.
That said, he has the playing style and experience to help United do better in away games against stronger opponents. They lost on all but one of their eight visits to the other clubs to finish in the Premier League’s top nine last season — and by a combined scoreline of 22 goals to six.
United’s porous midfield at the start of this season means they might need the Morocco version of Amrabat just as much as the Fiorentina one.
Either way, this is a signing that makes sense for Ten Hag’s team, given their current midfield issues.
This is one star of an international tournament who just might make a similar impression at Old Trafford.
(Top photos: Getty Images)
