Spain, Portugal and Morocco will co-host the World Cup in 2030, FIFA announced on Wednesday.
The three countries’ joint bid had been the frontrunner for a while, but this week we also heard the surprise news that the tournament’s first three matches will be played in Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay.
But only one of the countries can hold the final — and we have already seen some positioning in the race to land it.
Who are the front runners?
One thing has been very clear throughout Spain’s attempt to host the 2030 World Cup, from the initial idea of an ‘Iberian bid’ with just Portugal, through the brief idea that Ukraine would host some games, to joining up with Morocco and, finally, this week’s inclusion of three games in South America.
Everyone in Spain has always been very clear that the final would be held in Real Madrid’s Estadio Santiago Bernabeu — just as it was in 1982 when Italy beat West Germany 3-1.
Given FIFA rules state the final must be held in a stadium with a capacity of at least 80,000, Barcelona’s 99,000-capacity Camp Nou could in theory be an option, but its biggest ambition would most likely be a semi-final.
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However, neither Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez nor interim Spanish Football Association (RFEF) president Pedro Rocha mentioned the final or the Bernabeu in their statements this week after hosting rights were settled.
Spain won the men’s World Cup in South Africa in 2010 (Simon Bruty/Anychance/Getty Images)
Morocco, meanwhile, has the ambition to host the final in Casablanca, in a stadium that is not yet built but is planned to become the country’s largest, with a capacity of 90,000.
However, the Moroccan Football Association knows there are other cities and other candidate stadiums. They see it as far from certain that their new stadium in Casablanca would be chosen, but they do consider it reasonable to think it could host one of the semi-finals. They will wait to see what next steps both Spain and Portugal take.
As for Portugal, three venues are so far expected to feature at the tournament — Porto’s Estadio do Dragao, Sporting Lisbon’s Estadio Jose Alvalade and Benfica’s Estadio da Luz. None of these has a capacity of over 80,000 —Benfica’s is the highest at around 65,000.
What is the official FIFA procedure? Do they decide?
FIFA’s decision to move ahead with the six-country idea for 2030 came as a surprise to many this week — including within Spain.
According to RFEF sources, who were not authorised to speak on the record, there is still a long process to go through before it is decided how many games are played in Spain, Portugal and Morocco and how many host stadiums each country gets.
In theory, these decisions will be made by FIFA in harmony with the three national federations, with a final decision not expected until close to the current deadline of June 2024.
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The evidence so far is that FIFA and its president Gianni Infantino are taking a clear leading role and that the Spanish government is more significantly involved than its FA, which remains in turmoil following the departure of former president Luis Rubiales in recent weeks.
The feeling in Spain is that the Moroccan FA has been emboldened by Spain’s current weakness and is making an attempt to secure as many important games as possible — hence its president Fouzi Lekjaa saying a new stadium could be built in Casablanca to host the final.
So where is the final most likely to end up?
The Bernabeu remains the very strong frontrunner.
Sources with knowledge of institutional relations at the highest level, who declined to be named to protect relationships, acknowledged to The Athletic on Friday that Real Madrid president Florentino Perez’s closeness with Infantino would be a big factor in the Bernabeu’s favour.
So it still remains unthinkable, in Spain at least, that the final could be held anywhere other than at Real’s home, which is right now going through the final stages of an impressive renovation.
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However, with so much still to be decided about the tournament, the RFEF may still have to cede more than they would like — for instance by reducing its number of host cities or by sharing out other key games.
What other Spanish venues might be used at the tournament?
FIFA’s rules state group games must be played in stadiums that hold more than 40,000 spectators and the semi-finals be played in grounds with a capacity of at least 60,000.
Atletico Madrid’s Estadio Metropolitano fits over 70,000 fans but will most likely be used for group games or early knockout rounds rather than a semi-final.
Many other Spanish cities and their La Liga clubs are also very hopeful of hosting group games — with 15 formal propositions having been made to the RFEF.
The renovation work at Real Madrid’s stadium is almost done (David Ramos/Getty Images)
Valencia’s plans to finally finish its Nou Mestalla ground are closely linked to World Cup 2030. Athletic Bilbao’s San Mames, Real Sociedad’s Reale Arena and Sevilla’s La Cartuja would also be well placed.
Others would depend on how many stadiums Spain finally get, such as Celta Vigo (Balaidos), Deportivo La Coruna (Riazor), Espanyol (RCDE Stadium), Sporting Gijon (El Molinon), Real Zaragoza (La Romareda), Murcia (La Nueva Condomina), Malaga (La Rosaleda) and Las Palmas (Estadio Gran Canaria).
All of these stadiums would need significant reforms and some clubs have already put together plans to use money received through the ‘La Liga Boost’ plan funded by CVC Capital Partners.
The final number now depends on negotiations between host countries and FIFA.
(Top photo: Real Madrid via Getty Images)
