The big early title showdown is almost upon us, with last season’s challengers Arsenal hosting champions and treble winners Manchester City.
The build-up to this one began as soon as City midfield lynchpin Rodri was shown a red card against Nottingham Forest a fortnight ago, but since then, Arsenal have had their own doubts over winger Bukayo Saka.
With injuries and suspensions to contend with and both managers liable to spring some surprises, the clash at the Emirates Stadium promises to produce plenty of intrigue and drama — and that’s just the team news an hour before kick-off.
City beat Arsenal twice in the Premier League last season (3-1 at the Emirates in February and 4-1 at the Etihad in April), as well as knocking Arteta’s side out of the FA Cup. Arsenal, however, claimed victory in the Community Shield in August after a penalty shootout.
So how are both teams shaping up and what should we look out for as Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola send their men into action? We asked The Athletic’s Arsenal writer Art de Roche and City writer Sam Lee for their insight.
What changed between City’s 4-1 victory in April and Arsenal winning the Community Shield?
De Roche: Arsenal had their best players available again. William Saliba’s absence from Arsenal’s defence in April was massive — they could not play the way they had done all season. Saliba is comfortable defending high alongside Gabriel on the halfway line, but Rob Holding was not. That created spaces for City to exploit early on to take control of the game.
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Saliba was back for the Community Shield and that comfort at defending open spaces was clear whenever he got into duels with Erling Haaland.
Haaland, right, vies with Saliba during the Community Shield (Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)
Arsenal’s midfield also went through a tough patch in April, failing to control games in or out of possession. They were much more consistent in their passing and comfortable in their pressing at Wembley — potentially a byproduct of having a more solid foundation behind them.
Lee: City’s march to trophies continued in a marked way! Against Arsenal in April they showed they can be more direct, with a long ball to Haaland from John Stones deep in the right corner and Kevin De Bruyne eventually scoring — but that was not the plan and Guardiola was seen berating Ederson for putting Stones in a position to kick it long. That shines a light on what is happening this season, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
During the transfer window, City lost some key players from the past few years — Ilkay Gundogan, Riyad Mahrez and Aymeric Laporte — and they replaced them with players who bring many qualities, chief among them the ability to carry the ball. But for the Community Shield, they only had one new signing (Mateo Kovacic) available, so the rebuild wasn’t even half done. After a short and difficult pre-season, they faced Arsenal and the rest is history.
What is new in terms of tactics for City and Arsenal?
Lee: City’s new signings and their injury problems have made for a dramatically different approach in the early weeks. Josko Gvardiol, Matheus Nunes, Jeremy Doku and Kovacic can all carry the ball brilliantly in their respective areas of the pitch and that has added a new dimension to City’s pass-oriented style.
The key thing is that the players most adept at setting the tempo of a match have either left or been injured for some or all of the season so far. That has meant Guardiola has fielded teams including Phil Foden, Julian Alvarez, Doku and Haaland in the same starting XI, something that would not have happened in 2022-23.
In short, those players are all very direct and they force City to play quicker. They have won most of their matches like that, but Guardiola prefers more balance to his teams through players like Gundogan, Rodri, Jack Grealish and Mahrez, who know how to slow the game down as well as speed it up.
For Sunday, it will be interesting to see how he manages to slow things down again to ensure the game remains under control — as far as possible.
Midweek, against RB Leipzig in the Champions League, the shift back to that approach was obvious, with Bernardo Silva and Grealish back from injury on the wings and even Rico Lewis pushed into midfield. They had Rodri then but won’t on Sunday as he is suspended and how they find a player(s) with his ability to control the game will be one of the key areas of interest.
Lewis celebrates City’s 3-1 win over RB Leipzig (Marvin Ibo Guengoer – GES Sportfoto/Getty Images)
However, Arsenal have been known to press City man to man and City’s response is normally to play longer passes and battle for the second balls, which makes the game more transitional in nature. Finding a balance between those who can slow the game down but also exploit those spaces will be key.
De Roche: Arteta tweaked things at the start of the season with Thomas Partey at right-back and Ben White at centre-back. Partey’s absence through a groin injury has coincided with the manager returning to the 4-3-3 of last season, however.
Not much has been new as a result — apart from how teams defend against Arsenal. Now, Arteta’s side spend much more time in the opposition half trying to break them down, which is why they have won more penalties (five) so far than they did throughout the whole of last season. Manchester City are unlikely to set up to defend, so this could be a case of Arsenal trying to rediscover their free-flowing attack from last season.
Will Guardiola try anything different?
Lee: The million-dollar question! What I am confident in saying is that Guardiola will aim for more control on Sunday. While a lot of City fans prefer the more direct style, Guardiola spelled out his preference on Wednesday night.
“Always I have the feeling that when you take 15, 20 touches, passes in every action in attack, something good is going to happen,” he said. “In every action, if Jack touches the ball, then Bernardo, then with Jack, then with Bernardo, when that happens in the same action, many good things are going to happen and today we did really, really, really well.”
Even if we can be fairly confident that Guardiola will try to control the game rather than embrace a more end-to-end affair, exactly how he goes about it is anybody’s guess.
Guardiola and Arteta worked together at City (Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)
He had already said this season that playing Lewis in midfield would give more ‘control’ and we saw it on Wednesday. Maybe the time is right for the 18-year-old, especially with a need for extra passes in midfield in Rodri’s absence. But if transitions are going to be a big feature, then perhaps Bernardo sits deeper in midfield (next to Kovacic perhaps) and Foden plays coming in off the right (with Kyle Walker overlapping), with Alvarez behind Haaland. City would then have Grealish, Foden, Alvarez and Haaland on the pitch for transitions but with Kovacic, Bernardo and Grealish also suited to giving them control in possession.
If Guardiola wanted to go even safer, then Lewis could play instead of Foden, with Bernardo coming in off the right. Even the choice between Nathan Ake (a very solid defender, great in one v ones) and Josko Gvardiol (who adds an extra threat in possession with passing and carrying) will be interesting.
Is Arteta likely to shake things up?
De Roche: This would only seem different for casual observers, but a midfield of Martin Odegaard, Thomas Partey and Declan Rice may be best. Arteta trialled that in the Community Shield and has said it is an approach he would like to replicate in big games.
Arsenal celebrate their equaliser in the Community Shield (Paul Harding – The FA/The FA via Getty Images)
This will very much depend on Partey’s fitness, however. The 30-year-old has not played since August 26 but has been in training since last week and travelled to Lens with the view of getting “some exposure tomorrow depending how the game goes”. Groin issues are delicate, so he should not be rushed back, but he will be named in the squad and, if he is fit enough to play, him alongside Rice could give Arsenal their best chance of winning.
What is the injury situation?
De Roche: Aside from Partey (and Jurrien Timber), Saka and Gabriel Martinelli are the big injury doubts for Arsenal. Martinelli is a big miss because, other than his goal threat, his raw pace is better than any other option Arsenal have in counter-attack situations. That, alongside Partey’s composure in midfield, was key in the 2-1 loss to City on January 1, 2022, that showed early signs that Arsenal could be competitive in the Premier League.
If Saka is unavailable it will be a massive blow for Arsenal because he brings so much to their attack. He is able to go on the outside, cut inside, take contact well on the dribble and is efficient in front of goal (he already has five goals and five assists this season).
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It feels like time to give Reiss Nelson a start if Saka misses out. The winger has mostly been used off the left, where he admitted to The Athletic he preferred playing during his loan at Feyenoord, but he actually had more output for the Dutch club when used off the right.
Lee: City are just about emerging from their injury problems, but the tail end of it will still have an impact. Rodri’s ban is obviously a big one and it would have been a little easier to mitigate if Stones had been available to step up into midfield, but he is still out.
De Bruyne is the other big absence, but Foden and/or Alvarez have provided their own threat in his absence.
As we saw in midweek, City do have very good options on the bench again, which was not always the case earlier in the season when they were missing four or five players at once.
I have no idea what the team will be, but my guess is this (4-3-3): Ederson; Walker, Akanji, Dias, Ake; Kovacic, Bernardo, Alvarez; Foden, Haaland, Grealish.
De Roche: Depending on injuries, I’m going for (4-3-3): Ramsdale; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Saka, Jesus, Trossard.
_ (Top photo: Robin Jones/Getty Images)_
