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Before we get to Saturday’s games, let’s break down yesterday’s news from Ann Arbor. Plus, we’re joined by Bruce Feldman to talk about questions for USC’s … offense.
Sign-Stealing Spies?
Another Michigan investigation
The NCAA is investigating the Michigan program amid allegations of sign-stealing, it was announced yesterday. Here’s a breakdown:
- Sign-stealing itself isn’t against the rules. Bruce Feldman wrote a behind-the-scenes look at the sleuthing act in 2018. The coaches Feldman spoke with estimated that 80-90 percent of college teams do some form of it. Sign-stealing means what it sounds like: It’s identifying opposing teams’ signals to recognize what play they will run before it happens.
- The rule in question is NCAA bylaw 11.6.1, which states: “Off-campus, in-person scouting of future opponents (in the same season) is prohibited.” The NCAA claimsMichigan is using a “vast network” to steal opposing teams’ signs, as one source with knowledge of the allegations said.
- On Wednesday, Michigan State (which plays Michigan on Saturday) and other future opponents of the Wolverines, including top-10 rivalsPenn State and Ohio State, were notified of the investigation.
In a Yahoo report, sources claim Michigan may have “used unnamed individuals” to attend games and scout signs used by “scheduled opponents and possible College Football Playoff opponents.” An overnight ESPN report says “a low-level staffer with a military background” is one of the keys to the scheme.
And don’t forget, Michigan is under investigation for a series of Level II rule violations. We’ll keep you updated as this story develops.
Feldman Files
USC offensive questions
With all the questions and criticisms of the USC defense, the Trojans’ offense actually has come into question. Even though the Trojans are averaging a robust 7.77 yards per play — second best in the Pac-12 behind Washington’s gaudy 8.49 — their numbers have tailed off significantly during the past few games. Three weeks ago, USC averaged 7.66 against a woeful Colorado defense (No. 115 nationally), but it was 6.29 against Arizona and then just 4.16 against Notre Dame in a game during which the Trojans also turned the ball over five times. Not so coincidentally, USC’s rushing numbers have fallen way off in the stretch.
A big issue for the Trojans now, according to rival coaches, is that their offensive line might actually be as much of a problem as their defense, maybe even more so.
“It’s a really weak group,” one rival coach who faced USC said. “They don’t look like what a USC O-line should look like. They look like they’re playing with guys who would be in the Mountain West. I think Caleb (Williams) made up for a lot of that, but maybe now he’s breaking down some too because of that and always trying to do too much.”
The stats reflect that last point. According to PFF, Williams, who was the top-ranked passer under pressure in FBS in 2022, is now the 175th-ranked passer under pressure — or fifth worst — in 2023. It echoes a quote a veteran NFL scout told me on Monday: “It’s like he’s trying to hit a five-run home run every time.”
That scout made an interesting observation that he thinks feeds into another problem that the Trojans’ line deals with: “They sit there in their stances for like 30 seconds waiting for them to get the play in and snap the ball, and then they’re having so many false starts and end up in a terrible rhythm with no pace to it.”
It’ll be fascinating to see how USC responds to last week’s atrocious performance at Notre Dame. Now, it gets the stingiest defense in the Pac-12 in Utah next. The Utes lead the conference in sacks and in rushing defense.
Penn State and Ohio State are both 6-0 overall and 3-0 in the Big Ten entering their matchup Saturday. (Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
Week 8 Breakdown
Playoff tests, rivalry showdowns
College Football Playoff implications
Noon: No. 7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) at No. 3 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0), Fox: Penn State hasn’t won in Columbus since 2011, and James Franklin is 1-8 against the Buckeyes. The stakes are high, but our writers answer this lingering question: Is Penn State-Ohio State a real rivalry?
Afternoon:Washington State (4-2, 1-2 Pac-12) at No. 9 Oregon (5-1, 2-1), 3:30 p.m., Fox: Both teams have a chip on their shoulder. The Cougs have lost two straight while Oregon is coming off a heartbreaker against Washington. (Minnesota at No. 24 Iowa was another candidate here. Why? Because the troublesome Big Ten West actually might help determine the East.)
Prime time: No. 16Duke (5-1, 2-0, ACC) at No. 4 Florida State (6-0, 4-0), 7:30 p.m., ABC: Florida State’s Keon Coleman looked unstoppable last week. Meanwhile, Duke is waiting for QB Riley Leonard to return from an ankle injury. There are high ACC title game stakes in this one.
Rivalry matchups
Noon: No. 22Air Force (6-0) at Navy (3-3), CBS: The Falcons have won three in a row in this series. Both teams rank in the top five in rushing yards, and Air Force looks like one of the best teams in the Group of 5. Another note: The home team has won nine of the past 10 games in the series.
Afternoon: No. 17Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) at No. 11 Alabama (6-1, 4-0), 3:30 p.m., CBS: Last year’s thriller snapped Tennessee’s 15-game losing streak to Bama. But both teams have new identities this season. Will the Tide retake control of the series?
Prime time: No. 2 Michigan (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) at Michigan State (2-4, 0-3), 7:30 p.m., NBC: The pressure has been climbing in this one. Outside of the latest Michigan news, this is the Wolverines’ first trip to East Lansing since losing a heartbreaker in 2021. The black cloud over it all, of course, is last year’s tunnel incident, which left many wondering: Has this rivalry gotten too toxic?
Stars of the FCS: The Dakotas
The four Dakota programs (South Dakota, South Dakota State, North Dakota and North Dakota State) are crushing the competition. The only losses (besides games against each other) have been against Boise State and Missouri. All are ranked in the top 15 of the FCS with SDSU the outright No. 1. The defending champion Jackrabbits sport a top-five scoring offense and defense.
- South Dakota at Indiana State, 1 p.m., ESPN+
- South Dakota State at Southern Illinois, 3 p.m., ESPN+
- Western Illinois at North Dakota State, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+
- North Dakota at Northern Iowa, 5 p.m., ESPN+
Best bets byAustin Mock
Penn State at Ohio State (-105), First-Half Under 22: “I don’t have a strong opinion on this game, but both offenses are up against it here. Factor in that both teams have been slow to start games on offense, and we might have to wait for the second half for some fireworks.”
Tennessee at Alabama (-115), Under 48.5: “My model is a big fan of Alabama’s defense, especially its run defense. Tennessee is going to have a hard time finding any success on the ground, and I don’t love its chances to find the end zone if it’s one-dimensional. Alabama’s offense also has had issues scoring. This game could be the total opposite of last year’s shootout in Knoxville.”
Duke +14.5 (-110) at Florida State: “This is entirely dependent on if Leonard is able to go, which I believe he will be. But I trust Mike Elko to have his defense prepared to slow down the Seminoles’ offense regardless. Duke has an exceptional pass defense, and slowing down the most efficient part of Florida State’s offense is imperative to staying within two touchdowns.”
