Newcastle United are preparing for life without Sandro Tonali.
The midfielder is expected to receive a lengthy suspension after being placed under investigation by Italian authorities for alleged illegal betting on football matches. The 23-year-old midfielder has sought a plea bargain with prosecutors and the seven-month ban received by Juventus’ Nicolo Fagioli, involved in the same inquiry, is seen as a minimum benchmark.
Speaking last Friday, Howe said the news came as a “total surprise to me, to (sporting director Dan Ashworth), to everybody.”
The pair will have to digest the reality quickly. There is no hiding that this is a body blow to Newcastle’s squad-building — with Tonali the only summer signing who immediately improved the starting XI.
The Italian is capable of playing all three positions in Howe’s midfield, though specialises in one of the two No 8 roles. Though his transition to Newcastle’s style of play has not been seamless, performances against Aston Villa and Paris Saint-Germain have showcased his potential.
Newcastle were attracted by this versatility, but also his availability: Tonali has never missed more than a week due to injury in his career. Expected to be a key part of the midfield rotation during a packed schedule, the club suddenly find themselves light.
Despite the return to fitness of Joe Willock and the emergence of Elliot Anderson (20) and Lewis Miley (17), Newcastle may well be tempted back into the market to replace a player signed for £55million ($67m) less than four months ago.
Constrained by financial fair play (FFP), Howe’s exhaustive criteria, and the difficulties of signing a player in January, it will not be an easy task for Ashworth and his recruitment team. These are Newcastle’s potential options.
Stylistic fits
So, what do Newcastle have the ability to do? From inside the club, the recurring message has been that FFP limits their ability to spend — though significant sums have still been paid in the previous four windows, despite these caveats.
It is the case that January business disrupts their plans for the summer — when the market is more favourable — while the circumstances of Tonali’s expected absence, with other clubs knowing Newcastle’s predicament, means the perception of a ‘Newcastle premium’ will be further entrenched.
Tonali’s versatility means that he is a complex player to replace — in theory capable of playing both No 6 and No 8, though he has settled more as the latter. Newcastle could however, if they wanted, sign a No 6 to both provide depth behind Bruno Guimaraes and allow the Brazilian to become another option as a No 8.
The Athletic used smarterscout’s algorithm to compare players who profile similarly to Tonali across several categories key to the Italian’s game: defending intensity, defending impact, forward carries, progressive passing and ball recoveries.
Data is taken from the 2022-23 season, where the larger sample size leads to more accurate results. The resulting names indicate who may be able to replicate Tonali’s impact stylistically.
Some of these are clearly unachievable — it is more than FFP that would stop Newcastle signing Jude Bellingham or Pedri — but it does throw up some enticing options.
Enzo Le Fee is young, talented, and extremely similar, but has only just joined Rennes from Lorient. Likewise, No 6 Ivan Ilic signed for Torino in a permanent deal this summer.
Khephren Thuram and Maxence Caqueret are different options stylistically, with Thuram a ball-winner and dribbler, while Caqueret is a deep-lying playmaker — but both would come at great expense.
Arne Engels is an interesting option. Just 20 years old, he is an extremely versatile player who can play across midfield or the right flank (a little like an inverted version of Lewis Hall). Appearing for Augsburg and Belgium Under-21s last season, he is Tonali’s closest replica in terms of statistical output — though at such a young age, and with such a relatively small sample size, it relies a lot on projection.
In terms of availability, 23-year-old Valencia midfielder Andre Almeida may be an option, with the Spanish club embroiled in crisis, and potentially in need of selling assets. Almeida is worth around £20million, and is a youth international for Portugal at every age group — impressing against England during his country’s quarter-final exit from this summer’s Under-21 European Championship.
Newcastle have expressed their interest in several other midfielders over recent seasons and the situations of some of those names are also worth revisiting.
Several of these are now unavailable, having moved since attracting Newcastle’s eye, such as Edson Alvarez (Ajax to West Ham United), Youri Tielemans (Leicester City to Aston Villa), Moises Caicedo (Brighton & Hove Albion to Chelsea), and Felix Nmecha (Wolfsburg to Borussia Dortmund).
In the summer, Newcastle used Inter Milan’s Nicolo Barella as a smokescreen for their move for Tonali — but price emphatically rules a move for another Italian international out. Fulham’s Joao Palhinha and Amadou Onana of Everton have also previously featured on head of recruitment Steve Nickson’s lists.
Palhinha is potentially unrealistic, but Onana could be viable. Newcastle previously took advantage of Everton’s financial situation when signing Anthony Gordon in January — and with finances still perilous, Sean Dyche’s side will likely need to sell one of Onana or centre-back Jarrad Branthwaite in the next year. The Belgium international is raw but massively talented; the drawback is the length of time it could take him to integrate into Howe’s system.
One final option, who Newcastle have scouted repeatedly, is Scott McTominay.
McTominay is capable of rotating between the No 6 and No 8 roles in Newcastle’s midfield and is both industrious off the ball and capable of bursting into the box in attack. Though his form for Manchester United has fluctuated, Howe values his experience and physicality, with the coach’s work with Sean Longstaff perhaps a model for McTominay’s own potential use.
The Scotland international, though on the edge of the team, still remains part of Erik ten Hag’s plans and has scored three goals in his last two games.
“He’s a player you can always count on — no matter if he starts every week or is on the bench for a few games,” the Dutch coach said last month. “Every minute he will fight for the match. Those players you need in the squad.”
With Manchester United still valuing McTominay and undoubtedly reluctant to sell to Newcastle, the midfielder would come at a premium.
Premier League loans
Newcastle only have one player signed on loan: Lewis Hall, whose move from Chelsea is almost certain to become permanent in the summer for £28million plus £7m of add-ons.
That leaves the club with one free loan slot (though they cannot sign another player from Chelsea), and serves as a short-term option to replace Tonali without ending up with another long-term contract on the books.
The issue is availability. Teams are usually only willing to loan out a player who is not integral to their plans — and there is almost always a reason behind that. In addition, Newcastle are shopping at a level where only a limited number of players are of the requisite quality to be worth bringing in. And their top-six competitors are unlikely to want to strengthen a direct rival.
No name inspires. Kalvin Phillips is an England international and is barely featuring for Manchester City, but only really plays as a No 6, rather than offering Tonali’s hybrid role.
Andre Gomes and Donny van de Beek are out of favour at Everton and Manchester United respectively, but there are doubts over whether they offer the requisite quality. To rebuild their confidence, one suspects, may take longer than a six-month loan.
Jonjo Shelvey’s name has been brought up by fans — keen to see a short-term return after his departure to Nottingham Forest in January. That move turned into a disaster, but the 31-year-old is now on loan at Caykur Rizespor in the Turkish Super Lig. Despite Shlevey still basing his family in the north east, any return would rely on extricating him from that loan.
Giovani Lo Celso is not a guaranteed starter for Ange Postecoglou at Tottenham Hotspur and was loaned out to Villarreal last year. The likelihood of Spurs effectively doing Newcastle a favour however, by granting a loan rather than a permanent deal, is extremely slim as the two clubs battle for European football.
The Saudi Pro League?
There is one further area to discuss. Since Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) bought four of the leading clubs in the Saudi Pro League (SPL), questions have repeatedly arisen over whether shared ownership will allow Newcastle to collude with the revamped league, such as through inflated transfer fees or favourable loan deals.
The issue returned to prominence after Allan Saint-Maximin’s £24million summer transfer to Al Ahli, which significantly helped Newcastle’s FFP situation. In July, The Athletic reported that numerous clubs planned to raise their concerns with the Premier League over the move.
However, Premier League regulations dictate that all transactions above the value of £1million are checked for fair market value — regardless of whether they are associated party transactions — and found no issue with Saint-Maximin’s transfer.
Stepping back, a £24million fee for such a dynamic talent, who is still only 26, cannot be described as outsized. At the same time, it can also be true that Al-Ahli’s interest in the out-of-favour winger was convenient for Newcastle, who were willing sellers.
Tonali’s expected absence means similar questions will inevitably be asked about Newcastle’s ability to enter the SPL transfer market, with concerns from other Premier League sides that PIF will be able to move players between clubs on loan. If there is no substantial fee, the deal would not be subject to a fair market value test.
While this may not break rules, it would inevitably attract the ire of competitors; Newcastle may decide that this is a battle they do not want to fight, given the deal would be a short-term loan.
Then again, there remains a faint possibility that Newcastle may choose the difficult and acrimonious route.
The list of SPL-based midfielders who have played at an elite level is a diverse mix of players, the majority over 30. In theory, a player specialising as a No 6 rather than a No 8 is not necessarily an impediment to any deal — it would still strengthen the midfield ranks, allowing Guimaraes to become an option further forward.
Saudi Pro League midfielders
Player| Club| Age
—|—|—
Ever Banega
Al Shabab
35
Fabinho
Al Ittihad
29
Marcelo Brozovic
Al Nassr
30
Jordan Henderson
Al Ettifaq
33
Franck Kessie
Al Ahli
26
Georginio Wijnaldum
Al Ettifaq
32
Ruben Neves
Al Hilal
26
Sergej Milinkovic-Savic
Al Hilal
28
Gabri Veiga
Al Ahli
21
Some of these can be instantly ruled out as options, either stylistically or through common sense — Sunderland youth academy product Jordan Henderson, anyone? — and while the notion of a short-term return for Georginio Wijnaldum might be tempting, the 32-year-old has been out of form following a fractured tibia last summer.
In reality, the most viable options are the final three names on this list: Al Hilal pair Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Ruben Neves, plus Al Ahli’s Gabri Veiga.
In theory, Milinkovic-Savic — an ever-present link to the Premier League — most closely replicates Tonali’s versatility, capable of swapping between both No 6 and No 8. In Serie A last season, he had outstanding goals and assists numbers for Lazio. That said, he could also be the riskiest of the trio, with the stylistic adjustment from Serie A (via the SPL) steep.
Neves was excellent for Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Premier League last season, finishing as both the team’s top scorer and top tackler, named by many as their player of the season. He has been a player Newcastle were interested in before, and profiles most naturally as a No 6 though, like Guimaraes, enjoys stepping up in certain phases of play.
Barcelona had been interested in the 26-year-old during the summer, with Neves openly speaking about the financial motivation swaying his decision to move to Saudi Arabia. A loan deal may offer the ability to protect his salary. The primary drawback, from Newcastle’s perspective, is that he is more of a depth piece for the midfield in general rather than a direct replacement for Tonali.
The final option is the biggest wildcard. It was a surprise when Veiga moved to Al Ahli from Celta Vigo, a string of top European sides having tracked the youngster throughout his emergence in La Liga.
Like Tonali, Veiga likes to carry the ball forward and has the ability to rotate between wide forward and No 8, as Howe likes from his advanced midfielders. Earlier in this piece, he is listed as a player who profiles as stylistically similar to the Italian. Though he still has work to do with his decision-making, the examples of Willock and Anthony Gordon demonstrate the impact Howe can have in this area.
However, that is also part of the problem. If Veiga was a short-term replacement, Howe would not have time to necessarily impart his methods — it took both Gordon and Willock time to adjust. Though his defending work in La Liga last season was encouraging (ranking in the top third of players for both defending impact and defending intensity), the Premier League is another step up.
These final three options are fanciful, with no signs yet that Newcastle have turned attention to the SPL to replace Tonali, or even whether they would be willing to consider it given the likely storm any loan move would provoke.
If Newcastle fail to make it through their Champions League group, the club’s senior leadership may also decide not to bring in further cover, instead relying on the fitness of their existing midfielders and utilising the same unit that finished last season (with the possible addition of Lewis Hall).
It would be a risk. Newcastle’s midfield resources were severely diminished in the final weeks of 2022-23 after injuries to Joelinton and Sean Longstaff, with Guimaraes battling through his own injury.
No option is ideal, after all, Tonali was considered that dream option by Newcastle’s management team. Desperation can force teams into rash choices — a position the club have so far avoided. Over the coming months, they may have little choice.
(Top image: Getty Images)
