Here are the last words any Manchester United fan wants to hear after Sunday: it is not that bad. Their defeat by City was emphatic in scoreline but even more chastening in how it made you feel.
The sense of a plucky underdog shooting their shot in the opening minutes, failing, then spending the rest of the game in a sort of awed ineffectiveness. The way City began to cut through lines both horizontal and vertical at will. Erik ten Hag’s tactical plan of unmarking Erling Haaland, which, to give the Dutchman some credit, is innovative.
Then there was the sad sight of rapidly emptying stands well before the end, supporters giving up even at 2-0 because there was clearly no way back. Of course vacant seats are a crude measure of fan mood. Seemingly half of Arsenal’s fans were gone before Takehiro Tomiyasu’s fifth against Sheffield United on Saturday. They and United have in common stadiums which can be a chore to leave, but little else at the moment. Has the Manchester derby ever been so one-sided?
The short answer is yes. Far more so, in fact. Between Alex Ferguson’s arrival in November 1986 and City’s relegation in 1996 the Manchester clubs played 17 times in all competitions, United won 11, City just once and United outscored City 32-17.
The gap closed after City’s promotion back to the top flight in 2000 until Ferguson retired at the end of 2012/13. Thirteen United wins to City’s 12 in all competitions in that period, with five draws, and United only scored one more than City’s 43 goals over 30 games.
City’s takeover (stand by for shocking statement) certainly improved them – this timespan covers the Why Always Me? 6-1 win at Old Trafford – but it had been competitive before then too. Two especially memorable pre-takeover wins for City were at the final Maine Road derby in 2002 (3-1, two for Shaun Goater) and the first one at Eastlands, 4-1 in 2004.
But since Ferguson the derby instinctively seems like a breeze for City. Games like Saturday’s go alongside the 6-3 last season with hat-tricks for Haaland and Phil Foden, and a desperate 4-1 seven months before that under Ralf Rangnick. The statistics do not quite support this hunch.
There have been 21 Manchester derbies in the league since 2013/14, the first post-Ferguson season. City have won 11, United seven, with three draws. City have outscored United by 1.8 goals per game to 1.1. A clear lead, then, but not a commanding one.
Indeed if looking at similar derbies from across Europe, the Manchester version sits roughly in the middle. At the most competitive end, Arsenal and Spurs have split their 21 league games since 2013/14 by a score of eight Arsenal wins to seven by Spurs, with six draws and only three goals between them.
Look at supposed Bundesliga rivals Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund in the same period and it is 15 Bayern wins to three from Dortmund, with two draws. Bayern have scored 33 more goals than Dortmund, the same number by which PSG have outscored Marseille in that time. By comparison, City are only 14 ahead of United.
So why does it feel like Pep Guardiola’s team are so much better in these games? Perhaps because City have had a vastly more successful past 13 years overall. Their collection of thumping derby wins have strengthened the impression, whereas the biggest post-Ferguson margin of victory for United over City is two goals.
Whatever the stats say, it is the conclusions drawn from games against rivals which are hardest to shake. Derbies are a poor read on the overall health of any team given their volatility, but still carry an outsized importance.
After the optimism of last season, Sunday’s derby brought a familiar feeling to United fans. Suddenly Ten Hag looks a lot like everyone else who has sat behind the bricks in the former seat of Ferguson.
