Group play was unremarkable for the United States women’s national team, to be kind. However, the knockout stage represents a fresh start and equal footing for every team in the last 16 of the 2023 World Cup.
The Americans are favored to get past Sweden in the Round of 16 on Sunday and remain among the betting favorites to win the tournament, but confidence is not as high as it was before play started. Two straight draws, a timely goalpost save and a second place finish in the group will do that.
The U.S. has finished second in a World Cup group before. That was in 2011 and the USWNT made the final after finishing second to Sweden in group play.
Speaking of Sweden, these opponents have plenty history in major tournaments beyond just the 2011 matchup.
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USWNT vs. Sweden
Kickoff time: 5 a.m. ET/10 a.m. BST Sunday
Venue: Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
If the USWNT has a rival, Sweden is on the short list of teams with the pedigree and head-to-head history to make a case. The Swedes have seven wins against the U.S., third-most of any country. Only Norway (19 wins) and China (nine) have beaten the U.S. more, but it has taken China 16 more games to get those two extra wins and most of Norway’s success was in the 1990s.
This will mark the sixth straight World Cup the U.S. and Sweden have met. All of those meetings, including an additional match in 1991, have taken place in the group stage. This will be the first time the U.S. has met Sweden in a knockout stage. The U.S. has 4 wins, one draw and one loss in the previous World Cup meetings.
These countries can’t seem to stay away from each other in major tournaments. They have also met three times in the Olympics, with the U.S. winning a group stage match in 1996 and Sweden winning the last two. In 2016, Sweden knocked the U.S. out on penalties in the quarterfinals. In 2020, the Swedes blew away the Americans, 3-0, in group play.
USA vs. Sweden at major tournaments
Year| Tournament| Result| Round
—|—|—|—
1991
World Cup
3-2 USA
Group stage
1996
Olympics
2-1 USA
Group stage
2003
World Cup
3-1 USA
Group stage
2007
World Cup
2-0 USA
Group stage
2011
World Cup
2-1 Sweden
Group stage
2015
World Cup
0-0
Group stage
2016
Olympics
1-1 (4-3 Sweden on PKs)
Quarterfinal
2019
World Cup
2-0 USA
Group stage
2020
Olympics
3-0 Sweden
Group stage
What’s expected from this meeting? The Americans are favored to advance, but are not an overwhelming favorite. The U.S. winning in regular time has plus odds (+110).
Rose Lavelle, who was working her way back into full fitness during the group stage and only started one match, is suspended after getting two yellow cards in group play. That could mean Savannah DeMelo, who started the first two matches before being replaced by Lavelle, will return to the starting lineup.
While the Americans struggled in draws against the Netherlands and Portugal, Sweden swept away its Group G opponents. The Swedes needed a 90th-minute goal to beat South Africa in the opener, but cruised past Italy (5-0) and Argentina (2-0) to finish with three wins in group play.
If you put any stock into the FIFA rankings, this is the marquee match of the Round of 16. The Americans are No. 1 in the world and Sweden sits third in the rankings.
Expert picks
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(Photo of Sophia Smith: Brad Smith/USSF / Getty Images; photo of Sweden: Jan Kruger / FIFA via Getty Images)
